Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 1.406928 1.458018 1.510661 1.569114 1.632391 1.699035 1.774813
2025-12-14 1.331139 1.398691 1.470342 1.552454 1.644532 1.745309 1.864945
2025-12-21 1.272243 1.350252 1.434772 1.533966 1.648288 1.777333 1.936141
2025-12-28 1.241387 1.329387 1.426588 1.543209 1.681166 1.841669 2.046539
2026-01-04 1.220110 1.317169 1.426264 1.559856 1.721841 1.915934 2.172988
2026-01-11 1.189801 1.292513 1.409552 1.555226 1.735449 1.956779 2.259386
2026-01-18 1.166263 1.274284 1.398948 1.556518 1.755264 2.005328 2.358436
2026-01-25 1.132463 1.242376 1.370367 1.533929 1.743150 2.011154 2.398990
2026-02-01 1.108765 1.221494 1.353996 1.525294 1.747713 2.038221 2.470240
2026-02-08 1.085927 1.200735 1.336794 1.514506 1.748384 2.059348 2.533770
2026-02-15 1.064815 1.181308 1.320395 1.503783 1.748167 2.078598 2.595313
2026-02-22 1.049771 1.168741 1.311923 1.502638 1.760277 2.115181 2.685952
2026-03-01 1.021994 1.140250 1.283264 1.474943 1.736079 2.100021 2.695926
2026-03-08 1.005151 1.124838 1.270575 1.467639 1.739381 2.124589 2.772340
2026-03-15 0.987256 1.107607 1.254999 1.455802 1.735592 2.138112 2.831219
2026-03-22 0.980542 1.104150 1.256816 1.467133 1.764780 2.202746 2.985458
2026-03-29 0.976634 1.104032 1.262793 1.484121 1.802683 2.283266 3.179587
2026-04-05 0.964707 1.093346 1.254604 1.481204 1.811101 2.317415 3.290874
2026-04-12 0.955374 1.085718 1.250148 1.483184 1.826686 2.363979 3.433316
2026-04-19 0.937722 1.066985 1.230524 1.463210 1.808182 2.352619 3.454368
2026-04-26 0.925701 1.055294 1.219972 1.455687 1.808257 2.372448 3.544605
2026-05-03 0.913373 1.042951 1.208241 1.446082 1.804624 2.385527 3.621808
2026-05-10 0.901521 1.030999 1.196755 1.436451 1.800480 2.397318 3.697792